Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators?

[gareth evans]

This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...

1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.

QED

[Charlie Gibbs]

Post by gareth evans
This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...
1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
QED

Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

[J. Clarke]

Post by Charlie Gibbs

Post by gareth evans
This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...
1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
QED

Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

[Quadibloc]

IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.

So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.

Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

John Savard

[gareth evans]

Post by Quadibloc

IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Also today. as in the news bulletins, the DOS attack on the
Yank wholesale meat supplier.

[Andreas Kohlbach]

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

[gareth evans]

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

[danny burstein]

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach
Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Keep in mind that the telegraph systems were (due
to the costs of wire and equipment) stretched out
just to the maximum, and then a touch beyond...
of levels of sensitivity. Hence anything at all
that changed the local electrical fields... would
have an impressive impact.

[Andreas Kohlbach]

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

Was still in the Cold War ad after radio communications went down there
was a concern the Russians jammed to prepare a nuclear strike. Must have
been chilling. I was on the other side of the pond at that time so only
learned about this even a few year ago.

[Questor]

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

[Dan Espen]

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

[Scott Lurndal]

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
current south pole.

During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
to additional cosmic and solar radiation.

[Peter Flass]

Post by Scott Lurndal

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
current south pole.
During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
to additional cosmic and solar radiation.

I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
do so.

[Dan Espen]

Post by Peter Flass

Post by Scott Lurndal

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
current south pole.
During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
to additional cosmic and solar radiation.

I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
do so.

So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
The sky may light up all day long.

I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.

[J. Clarke]

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Peter Flass

Post by Scott Lurndal

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
current south pole.
During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
to additional cosmic and solar radiation.

I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
do so.

So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
The sky may light up all day long.
I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.

The magnetic field changes orientation, it doesn't vanish.

[Dan Espen]

Post by J. Clarke

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Peter Flass

Post by Scott Lurndal

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
current south pole.
During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
to additional cosmic and solar radiation.

I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
do so.

So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
The sky may light up all day long.
I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.

The magnetic field changes orientation, it doesn't vanish.

I read that they expect a weak, less organized field to remain.
How weak and how much radiation reaches the ground doesn't seem
to be precisely known.

[Peter Flass]

Post by J. Clarke

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Peter Flass

Post by Scott Lurndal

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
current south pole.
During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
to additional cosmic and solar radiation.

I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
do so.

So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
The sky may light up all day long.
I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.

The magnetic field changes orientation, it doesn't vanish.

I’m told it doesn’t flip immediately, so for a period of time we’re
vulnerable to UV and other things.

[J. Clarke]

Post by Peter Flass

Post by J. Clarke

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Peter Flass

Post by Scott Lurndal

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
current south pole.
During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
to additional cosmic and solar radiation.

I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
do so.

So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
The sky may light up all day long.
I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.

The magnetic field changes orientation, it doesn't vanish.

I’m told it doesn’t flip immediately, so for a period of time we’re
vulnerable to UV and other things.

Pick up a magnet, turn it end for end. You've reversed the magnetic
field but you have never changed its intensity.

And the magnetic field has nothing whatsoever to do with UV.

[Quadibloc]

Pick up a magnet, turn it end for end. You've reversed the magnetic
field but you have never changed its intensity.

True, but a geomagnetic field reversal doesn't quite work like that.
During the process, the Earth's magnetic field will indeed be reduced
in strength for quite some time.

And the magnetic field has nothing whatsoever to do with UV.

Also true. However, when the Van Allen belts disappear, the Earth will
be struck by more charged particles. This will also bring a radiation
hazard... *as well as* causing serious, if temporary, damage to the
ozone layer, which _does_ have something to do with UV.

John Savard

[Peter Flass]

Post by Quadibloc

Pick up a magnet, turn it end for end. You've reversed the magnetic
field but you have never changed its intensity.

True, but a geomagnetic field reversal doesn't quite work like that.
During the process, the Earth's magnetic field will indeed be reduced
in strength for quite some time.

And the magnetic field has nothing whatsoever to do with UV.

Also true. However, when the Van Allen belts disappear, the Earth will
be struck by more charged particles. This will also bring a radiation
hazard... *as well as* causing serious, if temporary, damage to the
ozone layer, which _does_ have something to do with UV.
John Savard

We don’t really know how long “temporary” is. It might be a blink of an eye
on a geological timescale and still be a very long time in human terms.

[Questor]

Post by Dan Espen

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.

Naturally, nobody really knows what happens during a magnetic pole reversal, but
it is known to happen at irregular intervals. It has to be studied indirectly,
for example studying the orientation of magnetic minerals in lava flows that
occurred at the same time. When the lava hardened, those minerals were aligned
with the existing magnetic field of the Earth as it was in that moment.

As I understand the current theory, the reversal process takes only decades, not
millenia -- a blink of an eye in geological time scales. It is speculated that
first the Earth's magnetic field weakens, while the poles begin to wander more
rapidly. As the magnetic field continues to weaken, multiple north and south
magnetic poles appear. After some time of magnetic chaos with multiple weak
poles, the steps reverse. One set of poles -- now with the opposite polarity
with regard to the Earth's axis -- strengthens while the others fade away.

The impact of such an event on our current way of life would be huge. With a
weaker magnetic field, more cosmic radiation and various emanations from the sun
will reach the Earth's surface. Just being outside will be more hazardous.
Perhaps wearing a tinfoil hat would actually be necessary. The increased
radiation will also play havoc with any unshielded electronic equipment or wire
transmissions, and of course any wireless communication. Magnetic wayfinding
would be practically impossile.

It seems like there should be some good science fiction stories written about
life during/after a magnetic pole reversal. Anybody know of any?

[Andreas Kohlbach]

Post by Questor
As I understand the current theory, the reversal process takes only decades, not
millenia -- a blink of an eye in geological time scales.

That'll be enough to kill most life on earth. But from what I read there
is no evidence (in fossils) that a major extinction effect occurred.

[greymaus]

Post by Questor

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by gareth evans

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by Quadibloc
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.

Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.

I had to rush to google for that.

I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.

Post by gareth evans
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.

Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.

As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

We are all going to die, die horribly. Run. Unless we die of corvi*, or
laughing, first.

[Andreas Kohlbach]

On 3 Jun 2021 19:36:07 GMT, greymaus wrote:

Your client doesn't follow subject changes. Would be amazed slrn doesn't
do it by default. But then I find an old .slrnrc

strip_was_regexp " ?(was:.*)$"

so it's probably not default.

Post by greymaus

Post by Questor
As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.

We are all going to die, die horribly. Run. Unless we die of corvi*, or
laughing, first.

Where to tun?

Would be nice to die from Corona. But I cannot afford so many bottles of
that Mexican beer to die from alcohol poisoning. ;-)

[greymaus]

Post by Quadibloc

IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
John Savard

IMHO, any computer since about 2000 should do almost any ordinary job.

--

***@mail.com

[Andreas Kohlbach]

Post by greymaus

Post by Quadibloc

IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
John Savard

IMHO, any computer since about 2000 should do almost any ordinary job.

Not after a CME similar to the Carrington Event. Unless we can disconnect
everything. We ow should have enough early warning time. Time enough
(worst case some 10-20 hours) to inform all people who are likely
affected and shut down everything shortly before impact.

There is also a 50:50 chance weather earth dodges the impact or it gets
very bad, depending on the polarity of what's coming in, IIRC.

[J. Clarke]

Post by greymaus

Post by Quadibloc

IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
John Savard

IMHO, any computer since about 2000 should do almost any ordinary job.

For certain values. If by "ordinary" you mean balance your checkbook,
yes. If by "ordinary" you mean handle Amazon's order entry, not so
much.

[greymaus]

Post by J. Clarke

Post by greymaus

Post by Quadibloc

IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
John Savard

IMHO, any computer since about 2000 should do almost any ordinary job.

For certain values. If by "ordinary" you mean balance your checkbook,
yes. If by "ordinary" you mean handle Amazon's order entry, not so
much.

From memory, google got to critical mass by using massivel networked
refurbished computers

[undefined Hancock-4]

Post by Quadibloc
Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.

I dare say most people stop using old computers on account of being functionally obsolete, that is, the software no longer connected with the rest of the world. Physically they probably work just fine and have years of useful life in them.

Verizon has announced their old cellphones will cease working. Every subscriber has to kick in for 5G whether they need it or not.

Geez, I remember back when the Pentium chip came out. Suddenly the 486 was not only junk, but toxic. Everyone ran out to get the newer machine. Not that most people even needed it, but heaven forbid you weren't cool with old hardware. (And it was like that with earlier generations and later generations).

That's the computer biz. Always like that. Still is. (Followed the GM planned obsolesce model year approach).

If we weren't so obsessed with new stuff being so cool (and old stuff being so uncool) we could easily ride out any chip shortage for a few years.

[Quadibloc]

Post by undefined Hancock-4

Post by Quadibloc
Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.

I dare say most people stop using old computers on account of being
functionally obsolete, that is, the software no longer connected with
the rest of the world. Physically they probably work just fine and
have years of useful life in them.

Well, these days, *connecting to the rest of the world* is the main
part of a computer's *job*.

Post by undefined Hancock-4
Verizon has announced their old cellphones will cease working.
Every subscriber has to kick in for 5G whether they need it or not.
Geez, I remember back when the Pentium chip came out. Suddenly
the 486 was not only junk, but toxic. Everyone ran out to get the
newer machine. Not that most people even needed it, but heaven
forbid you weren't cool with old hardware. (And it was like that
with earlier generations and later generations).

I remember trying out the beta of Tomb Raider, which required a
Pentium, on the new Pentium Overdrive chip I put in my 486
motherboard...

Post by undefined Hancock-4
That's the computer biz. Always like that. Still is. (Followed
the GM planned obsolesce model year approach).
If we weren't so obsessed with new stuff being so cool
(and old stuff being so uncool) we could easily ride out
any chip shortage for a few years.

I am distressed at the announcement by Nvidia that it's ceasing
driver support for Kepler video cards, given the current shortage.

John Savard

[Questor]

Post by Quadibloc

Post by undefined Hancock-4

Post by Quadibloc
Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.

I dare say most people stop using old computers on account of being
functionally obsolete, that is, the software no longer connected with
the rest of the world. Physically they probably work just fine and
have years of useful life in them.

Well, these days, *connecting to the rest of the world* is the main
part of a computer's *job*.

Yes, and connecting to the rest of the world usually requires encryption.
Encryption, as it is implemented today, requires security certificates, which
expire. Although, for example, there is a mechanism in most browsers to
add new certificates, apparently the only effective way to get them is with
a browser upgrade to a newer version. Eventually the latest version of a
browser requires a newer version of the OS. And then eventually the newer
version of the OS no longer runs on older hardware and requires a newer
computer.

[Clark G]

Post by undefined Hancock-4

Post by Quadibloc
Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.

I dare say most people stop using old computers on account of being
functionally obsolete, that is, the software no longer connected with
the rest of the world. Physically they probably work just fine and
have years of useful life in them.
Verizon has announced their old cellphones will cease working. Every
subscriber has to kick in for 5G whether they need it or not.
Geez, I remember back when the Pentium chip came out. Suddenly the
486 was not only junk, but toxic. Everyone ran out to get the newer
machine. Not that most people even needed it, but heaven forbid you
weren't cool with old hardware. (And it was like that with earlier
generations and later generations).
That's the computer biz. Always like that. Still is. (Followed the
GM planned obsolesce model year approach).
If we weren't so obsessed with new stuff being so cool (and old stuff
being so uncool) we could easily ride out any chip shortage for a few
years.

This has kind of reversed and there are now a lot of folks looking for
old 286/386/486 computers to relive their childhood days playing DOS or
early Windows games. That is a lot of what is going on at the
r/VintageComputers reddit.

[Kerr-Mudd, John]

On Tue, 15 Jun 2021 23:20:10 -0000 (UTC)

Post by Clark G

Post by undefined Hancock-4

Post by Quadibloc
Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.

I dare say most people stop using old computers on account of being
functionally obsolete, that is, the software no longer connected with
the rest of the world. Physically they probably work just fine and
have years of useful life in them.
Verizon has announced their old cellphones will cease working. Every
subscriber has to kick in for 5G whether they need it or not.
Geez, I remember back when the Pentium chip came out. Suddenly the
486 was not only junk, but toxic. Everyone ran out to get the newer
machine. Not that most people even needed it, but heaven forbid you
weren't cool with old hardware. (And it was like that with earlier
generations and later generations).
That's the computer biz. Always like that. Still is. (Followed the
GM planned obsolesce model year approach).
If we weren't so obsessed with new stuff being so cool (and old stuff
being so uncool) we could easily ride out any chip shortage for a few
years.

This has kind of reversed and there are now a lot of folks looking for
old 286/386/486 computers to relive their childhood days playing DOS or
early Windows games. That is a lot of what is going on at the
r/VintageComputers reddit.

Never went away; I run an XP machine to allow me to run DOS programs (apps) & write asm code.
I play duke3d for "relaxation".

Post by Clark G
--
Clark G
* take away the em's to reply

[Quadibloc]

Post by Clark G

Post by undefined Hancock-4
If we weren't so obsessed with new stuff being so cool (and old stuff
being so uncool) we could easily ride out any chip shortage for a few
years.

This has kind of reversed and there are now a lot of folks looking for
old 286/386/486 computers to relive their childhood days playing DOS or
early Windows games. That is a lot of what is going on at the
r/VintageComputers reddit.

While it is true that your old Commodore 64 has now completed its
evolution from junk to antique, I don't think that counts as a reversal
of the demand for up-to-date hardware.

However, that trend _is_ coming to an end. As Clarke pointed out early
in Profiles of the Future, new technologies follow an S-curve... and we're
at the end of Dennard Scaling, which is why computers haven't kept getting
even faster after they hit 3-5 GHz, and Moore's Law is slowing down too.

This doesn't mean an end of progress is *imminent*, however; Moore's Law
will continue from today's 7nm chips down to 3nm and even denser, and
there are other possible technologies on the horizon such as molybdenum
disulfide.

But in a few years, progress will slow to the point where a computer is
an investment that will last decades.

John Savard

[Ahem A Rivet's Shot]

On Fri, 18 Jun 2021 19:58:39 -0700 (PDT)

Post by Quadibloc
This doesn't mean an end of progress is *imminent*, however; Moore's Law
will continue from today's 7nm chips down to 3nm and even denser, and
there are other possible technologies on the horizon such as molybdenum
disulfide.

Oh the slogan possibilities eg. "Molyslip chips for low friction
computing".

Post by Quadibloc
But in a few years, progress will slow to the point where a computer is
an investment that will last decades.

You are almost certainly right ... but that is the sort of
prediction that usually comes shortly before something unexpectedly turns
things upside down.

[Quadibloc]

Post by Ahem A Rivet's Shot
On Fri, 18 Jun 2021 19:58:39 -0700 (PDT)

Post by Quadibloc
This doesn't mean an end of progress is *imminent*, however; Moore's Law
will continue from today's 7nm chips down to 3nm and even denser, and
there are other possible technologies on the horizon such as molybdenum
disulfide.

Oh the slogan possibilities eg. "Molyslip chips for low friction
computing".

Amazingly enough, because the electrons travel in ballistic paths, friction is
what is lowered here, of a kind.

Post by Ahem A Rivet's Shot

Post by Quadibloc
But in a few years, progress will slow to the point where a computer is
an investment that will last decades.

You are almost certainly right ... but that is the sort of
prediction that usually comes shortly before something unexpectedly turns
things upside down.

Yes, that certainly happened around 1905 or so...

From new materials to quantum computing, there are hints of new developments
on the horizon. But there may at least be a pause before new improvements come
to market...

John Savard

[J. Clarke]

On Sat, 19 Jun 2021 10:16:36 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc

Post by Quadibloc

Post by Ahem A Rivet's Shot
On Fri, 18 Jun 2021 19:58:39 -0700 (PDT)

Post by Quadibloc
This doesn't mean an end of progress is *imminent*, however; Moore's Law
will continue from today's 7nm chips down to 3nm and even denser, and
there are other possible technologies on the horizon such as molybdenum
disulfide.

Oh the slogan possibilities eg. "Molyslip chips for low friction
computing".

Amazingly enough, because the electrons travel in ballistic paths, friction is
what is lowered here, of a kind.

Post by Ahem A Rivet's Shot

Post by Quadibloc
But in a few years, progress will slow to the point where a computer is
an investment that will last decades.

You are almost certainly right ... but that is the sort of
prediction that usually comes shortly before something unexpectedly turns
things upside down.

Yes, that certainly happened around 1905 or so...
From new materials to quantum computing, there are hints of new developments
on the horizon. But there may at least be a pause before new improvements come
to market...

I suspect that we're going to see a pattern similar to aircraft. I
started to say "automobiles and aircraft" but automobiles seem to bne
on the toe of another growth curve, where a thrifty grocery-getter can
show taillights to what used to be the definition of fast.

But aircraft today aren't actually any more performant than aircraft
50 years ago--they have nicer instrumentation and lower control forces
and they are more economical and comfortable and can carry more load,
but they aren't actually faster or more maneuverable.

I suspect computers are hitting that point.

[John Levine]

Post by J. Clarke
But aircraft today aren't actually any more performant than aircraft
50 years ago--they have nicer instrumentation and lower control forces
and they are more economical and comfortable and can carry more load,
but they aren't actually faster or more maneuverable.

Even longer than that. The de Havilland Comet in 1952 did everything
of signficance that current jets do. It had a pressurized cabin,
turbojet engines, and could fly at 400 kt as high as 42,000 ft. The
improved Comet 3 could fly at 450 kt as high as 45,000 ft. Modern jets
are much more reliable (the early Comets had design flaws that caused
some awful crashes), the range is much longer than 2800 mi, and some
are considerably bigger, but they don't fly much faster and they work
basically the same. Maybe someone will come up with a practical SST
but I'm not holding my breath.

I can believe that raw computer CPU performance is hitting a wall but I think
there's still some interesting work in special purpose processors and integrated
peripherals. The Apple M1 has a conventional ARM CPU, but it also has a GPU
that can do over 2 Tflops, a 16 core neural network engine, a image DSP, and
some other controllers and the whole thing draws only 7 watts.

[Ahem A Rivet's Shot]

On Sat, 19 Jun 2021 22:03:44 -0000 (UTC)

Post by John Levine
The Apple M1 has a conventional ARM CPU, but it also has a GPU
that can do over 2 Tflops,

OK now that has an oldish headline ringing in my head ... but from
where and how old ?

"The Teraflops are Coming"

I'm pretty sure it wasn't talking about laptop chips!

[Quadibloc]

Post by Ahem A Rivet's Shot
OK now that has an oldish headline ringing in my head ... but from
where and how old ?
"The Teraflops are Coming"
I'm pretty sure it wasn't talking about laptop chips!

I could not find _any_ results on that phrase in association with oldish
supercomputers. I found a web result about a version of the Sony Playstation
witn nine teraflops.

But without the exact phrase, I found that in 1992 Popular Science had an
article "The Teraflops Race", about the race to produce the first supercomputer
with the capacity of one teraflop.

John Savard

[Peter Flass]

Post by John Levine

Post by J. Clarke
But aircraft today aren't actually any more performant than aircraft
50 years ago--they have nicer instrumentation and lower control forces
and they are more economical and comfortable and can carry more load,
but they aren't actually faster or more maneuverable.

Even longer than that. The de Havilland Comet in 1952 did everything
of signficance that current jets do. It had a pressurized cabin,
turbojet engines, and could fly at 400 kt as high as 42,000 ft. The
improved Comet 3 could fly at 450 kt as high as 45,000 ft. Modern jets
are much more reliable (the early Comets had design flaws that caused
some awful crashes), the range is much longer than 2800 mi, and some
are considerably bigger, but they don't fly much faster and they work
basically the same. Maybe someone will come up with a practical SST
but I'm not holding my breath.

On it’s way, apparently.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-57361193

Post by John Levine
I can believe that raw computer CPU performance is hitting a wall but I think
there's still some interesting work in special purpose processors and integrated
peripherals. The Apple M1 has a conventional ARM CPU, but it also has a GPU
that can do over 2 Tflops, a 16 core neural network engine, a image DSP, and
some other controllers and the whole thing draws only 7 watts.

[J. Clarke]

On Sat, 19 Jun 2021 20:15:50 -0700, Peter Flass

Post by Peter Flass

Post by John Levine

Post by J. Clarke
But aircraft today aren't actually any more performant than aircraft
50 years ago--they have nicer instrumentation and lower control forces
and they are more economical and comfortable and can carry more load,
but they aren't actually faster or more maneuverable.

Even longer than that. The de Havilland Comet in 1952 did everything
of signficance that current jets do. It had a pressurized cabin,
turbojet engines, and could fly at 400 kt as high as 42,000 ft. The
improved Comet 3 could fly at 450 kt as high as 45,000 ft. Modern jets
are much more reliable (the early Comets had design flaws that caused
some awful crashes), the range is much longer than 2800 mi, and some
are considerably bigger, but they don't fly much faster and they work
basically the same. Maybe someone will come up with a practical SST
but I'm not holding my breath.

On it’s way, apparently.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-57361193

Looks to me like another scam to separate venture capitalists from
their money.

Company never built an aircraft before.
Aircraft is smaller than Concorde
Aircraft is slower than Concorde
Aircraft runs on "green" fuel which is likely to be more expensive
than that used by Concorde
Aircraft doesn't have technology to reduce sonic boom so no overland
routes.
Over most of the transpacific routes it's going to have to land
somewhere to refuel (unless they plan on operating tankers which is
more cost).

Maybe the thing will actuall be usable at a profit, but in the time
frame they're talking about for it to become operational they may be
competing with 30 minute to anywhere rocket service.

Post by Peter Flass

Post by John Levine
I can believe that raw computer CPU performance is hitting a wall but I think
there's still some interesting work in special purpose processors and integrated
peripherals. The Apple M1 has a conventional ARM CPU, but it also has a GPU
that can do over 2 Tflops, a 16 core neural network engine, a image DSP, and
some other controllers and the whole thing draws only 7 watts.

[John Levine]

Post by J. Clarke

Maybe someone will come up with a practical SST but I'm not holding my breath.

On it’s way, apparently.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-57361193

Looks to me like another scam to separate venture capitalists from
their money.

I've seen the press releases and like I said I'm not holding my breath.

The physics of supersonic flight make it rather implausible that they can make
it cost competitive with regular jets. Also, this is supposed to be an all
business class plane, and regular international business class has gotten vastly
better since the era of the Concorde. There are flat beds where you can actually
sleep if you want, or decent Internet if you want to work. The hours in the air are
not "wasted" like they were when your only options were a bad movie, the book you brought,
or getting sloshed on thin air and cocktails.

[greymaus]

Post by Quadibloc

Post by Clark G

Post by undefined Hancock-4
If we weren't so obsessed with new stuff being so cool (and old stuff
being so uncool) we could easily ride out any chip shortage for a few
years.

This has kind of reversed and there are now a lot of folks looking for
old 286/386/486 computers to relive their childhood days playing DOS or
early Windows games. That is a lot of what is going on at the
r/VintageComputers reddit.

While it is true that your old Commodore 64 has now completed its
evolution from junk to antique, I don't think that counts as a reversal
of the demand for up-to-date hardware.
However, that trend _is_ coming to an end. As Clarke pointed out early
in Profiles of the Future, new technologies follow an S-curve... and we're
at the end of Dennard Scaling, which is why computers haven't kept getting
even faster after they hit 3-5 GHz, and Moore's Law is slowing down too.
This doesn't mean an end of progress is *imminent*, however; Moore's Law
will continue from today's 7nm chips down to 3nm and even denser, and
there are other possible technologies on the horizon such as molybdenum
disulfide.
But in a few years, progress will slow to the point where a computer is
an investment that will last decades.
John Savard

+++

[Scott Lurndal]

Post by J. Clarke

Post by Charlie Gibbs

Post by gareth evans
This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...
1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
QED

Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

That's a bit misleading. Most of those plants you've mentioned are
rather old processes (e.g. 90nm, 45nm). Only TSMC is currently shipping
production 5NM parts. Intel has been having difficulties with yield
with their 10NM process. Samsung is at 7nm and struggling to go smaller.

Processor designers are designing chips for 3NM today, and there will be only one
plant capable of 2 and 3nm in the near future (TSMC, in 2022).

[JimP]

Post by Scott Lurndal

Post by J. Clarke

Post by Charlie Gibbs

Post by gareth evans
This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...
1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
QED

Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

That's a bit misleading. Most of those plants you've mentioned are
rather old processes (e.g. 90nm, 45nm). Only TSMC is currently shipping
production 5NM parts. Intel has been having difficulties with yield
with their 10NM process. Samsung is at 7nm and struggling to go smaller.
Processor designers are designing chips for 3NM today, and there will be only one
plant capable of 2 and 3nm in the near future (TSMC, in 2022).

So... radio implants in our brains, ala Ghost in the Shell, are still
in the future ?

[Ahem A Rivet's Shot]

On Wed, 02 Jun 2021 15:30:39 -0500

Post by JimP
So... radio implants in our brains, ala Ghost in the Shell, are still
in the future ?

https://cml.harvard.edu/assets/NatNano_2015_10_629-636_Liu_SI.pdf

Well there was this work on injectable electronics. ISTR hearing
that Musk's NeuralLink outfit ohled the rights.

[greymaus]

Post by J. Clarke

Post by Charlie Gibbs

Post by gareth evans
This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...
1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
QED

Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
(Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?

There was a review of all that sort of thing some years ago, which
seemed to conclude that chipmaking was very anti-environmental.

greymausg.mail.com

[Andreas Kohlbach]

Post by greymaus

Post by J. Clarke
Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
(Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?

AFAIK AMD has three fabs in Dresden (former East Germany). They are on one
complex though.

[Peter Flass]

Post by Andreas Kohlbach

Post by greymaus

Post by J. Clarke
Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
(Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?

AFAIK AMD has three fabs in Dresden (former East Germany). They are on one
complex though.

One in NY. The fabs are now GlobalFoundries. AMD seems to have gone
design-only, like ARM.

[J. Clarke]

Post by greymaus

Post by J. Clarke

Post by Charlie Gibbs

Post by gareth evans
This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...
1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
QED

Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
(Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?

I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.

There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of _any_ kind having ever
existed in Vietnam.

There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.

Post by greymaus
There was a review of all that sort of thing some years ago, which
seemed to conclude that chipmaking was very anti-environmental.

If someone came up with a process that turns CO2 into rainbows with no
energy input, no waste heat, and no other effects, there would be
those who argued that it was "anti-environmental". Note that I left
off the unicorns--they might belch methane.

[Charlie Gibbs]

Post by J. Clarke

Post by greymaus
There was a review of all that sort of thing some years ago, which
seemed to conclude that chipmaking was very anti-environmental.

If someone came up with a process that turns CO2 into rainbows with
no energy input, no waste heat, and no other effects, there would be
those who argued that it was "anti-environmental". Note that I left
off the unicorns--they might belch methane.

Loading Image...

[J. Clarke]

Post by Charlie Gibbs

Post by J. Clarke

Post by greymaus
There was a review of all that sort of thing some years ago, which
seemed to conclude that chipmaking was very anti-environmental.

If someone came up with a process that turns CO2 into rainbows with
no energy input, no waste heat, and no other effects, there would be
those who argued that it was "anti-environmental". Note that I left
off the unicorns--they might belch methane.

http://i.pinimg.com/736x/55/2c/bc/552cbc7bce0943051c0dcc69669ca560.jpg

Flashing on

from
Konusuba.

[greymaus]

Post by J. Clarke

Post by greymaus

Post by J. Clarke

Post by Charlie Gibbs

QED

Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.

I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
(Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?

I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of _any_ kind having ever
existed in Vietnam.
There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.

Post by greymaus
There was a review of all that sort of thing some years ago, which
seemed to conclude that chipmaking was very anti-environmental.

If someone came up with a process that turns CO2 into rainbows with no
energy input, no waste heat, and no other effects, there would be
those who argued that it was "anti-environmental". Note that I left
off the unicorns--they might belch methane.

Thanks for that info.

[Vir Campestris]

Post by J. Clarke
I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of_any_ kind having ever
existed in Vietnam.
There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.

Vietnam shares a border with China.

I'm also concerned over Taiwan.

Andy

[J. Clarke]

On Sun, 13 Jun 2021 22:00:08 +0100, Vir Campestris

Post by Vir Campestris

Post by J. Clarke
I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of_any_ kind having ever
existed in Vietnam.
There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.

Vietnam shares a border with China.

I don't think the world ends if Intel loses one assembly facility.

Post by Vir Campestris
I'm also concerned over Taiwan.

That is a reasonable concern. The US really should establish full
diplomatic relations with Taiwan and if the commies don't like it,
screw 'em.

[Peter Flass]

Post by J. Clarke
On Sun, 13 Jun 2021 22:00:08 +0100, Vir Campestris

Post by Vir Campestris

Post by J. Clarke
I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of_any_ kind having ever
existed in Vietnam.
There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.

Vietnam shares a border with China.

I don't think the world ends if Intel loses one assembly facility.

Post by Vir Campestris
I'm also concerned over Taiwan.

That is a reasonable concern. The US really should establish full
diplomatic relations with Taiwan and if the commies don't like it,
screw 'em.

Right. The world spends a lot of time tiptoeing around lest they hurt
China’s feelings. China, or West Taiwan as the meme goes, needs to grow up
and realize that the universe doesn’t care about their feelings.

[Charlie Gibbs]

Post by Peter Flass

Post by J. Clarke
On Sun, 13 Jun 2021 22:00:08 +0100, Vir Campestris

Post by Vir Campestris
I'm also concerned over Taiwan.

That is a reasonable concern. The US really should establish full
diplomatic relations with Taiwan and if the commies don't like it,
screw 'em.

Right. The world spends a lot of time tiptoeing around lest they hurt
China’s feelings. China, or West Taiwan as the meme goes, needs to
grow up and realize that the universe doesn’t care about their feelings.

Why should they? They don't care about the universe's feelings;
they have plans to conquer it all anyway.

[Peter Flass]

Post by Vir Campestris

Post by J. Clarke
I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of_any_ kind having ever
existed in Vietnam.
There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.

Vietnam shares a border with China.
I'm also concerned over Taiwan.
Andy

AMD (or now GlobalFoundries) has a pretty big operation in Stuttgart. Isn’t
there something in Scotland?

[Scott Lurndal]

Post by Vir Campestris

Post by J. Clarke
I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of_any_ kind having ever
existed in Vietnam.
There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.

Vietnam shares a border with China.
I'm also concerned over Taiwan.
Andy

AMD (or now GlobalFoundries) has a pretty big operation in Stuttgart. Isn’t
there something in Scotland?

The GlobalFoundaries fabs:
Fab 1 (Dresden) supposedly 12nm
Fab 7 (Singapore) 130 to 40nm
Fab 8 (NY) 14nm
Fab 10 (NY) 14nm (Sold to ON Semiconductor in 2019).

Fab 2 (Singapore) 350nm
Fab 3/5 (Singapore) 180nm
Fab 3E (Singapore )180nm
Fab 6 (Singapore) 110nm
Fab 9 (Vermont) 90nm


For comparison, TSMC is currently shipping 7nm and starting to
produce 5nm and preparing for 3nm.

AMD uses GF for the I/O dies (12/14nm) and TSMC for the processor dies (7nm).

None of the GF fabs are suitable for modern processors which are sub-10nm
for the most part (Intel is still having difficulties with their 10nm fab).

[Ahem A Rivet's Shot]

On Mon, 14 Jun 2021 14:42:09 GMT

Post by Scott Lurndal
None of the GF fabs are suitable for modern processors which are sub-10nm
for the most part (Intel is still having difficulties with their 10nm fab).

As best as I can make out TSMC have over half the overall market and
all of the high end (sub 10nm) - they'll take a *lot* of catching.

[Quadibloc]

Post by Ahem A Rivet's Shot
As best as I can make out TSMC have over half the overall market and
all of the high end (sub 10nm) - they'll take a *lot* of catching.

Not *all* of the high end. Samsung has some of that too.

And, of course, there's even Intel, even if it doesn't produce for third
parties; their 10nm, except for speed issues, is comparable to TSMC's
7nm.

John Savard

[Anssi Saari]

Post by Quadibloc

Post by Ahem A Rivet's Shot
As best as I can make out TSMC have over half the overall market and
all of the high end (sub 10nm) - they'll take a *lot* of catching.

Not *all* of the high end. Samsung has some of that too.
And, of course, there's even Intel, even if it doesn't produce for third
parties; their 10nm, except for speed issues, is comparable to TSMC's
7nm.

I seem to recall Intel does produce for third parties these days? Intel
Foundry Services was announced in March.

Might have a bit of credibility problem as they are new and not exactly
known for grit, having pulled out in a previous attempt after a year in
2003.

[Quadibloc]

Post by Charlie Gibbs
It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

How would such startups ever attract the amount of money they need
to start up?

John Savard

[Charlie Gibbs]

Post by Quadibloc

Post by Charlie Gibbs
It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

How would such startups ever attract the amount of money they need
to start up?

Complexity is a weapon. The KISS principle is a countermeasure.

[J. Clarke]

Post by Charlie Gibbs

Post by Quadibloc

Post by Charlie Gibbs
It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

How would such startups ever attract the amount of money they need
to start up?

Complexity is a weapon. The KISS principle is a countermeasure.

Non-sequitur. How does either get the billion dollars to build the
fab?

[Ahem A Rivet's Shot]

On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 05:22:36 -0400

Post by J. Clarke
Non-sequitur. How does either get the billion dollars to build the
fab?

The same way anyone else does. AIUI they write a staged business
plan that leads to a stonking great profit and do all the other required
groundwork to prepare a proposal which they take round the all vulture
capitalists they can find (or stand) until one bites and they get the first
round backing. Then they work their backsides off and pray that they get to
IPO with some equity left in their own hands.

[Andreas Kohlbach]

Post by Charlie Gibbs

Post by gareth evans
This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...
1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.

Many analysts say the industry will recover in this quarter but due
the high demand (the car industry seems to be hit worst) it'll take
until the end of 2021 until all is back to normal.

Post by Charlie Gibbs
Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.

To get back a bit on topic, time Commodore comes back and reopens the MOS
fab. :-D

[Quadibloc]

Post by gareth evans
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.

I've seen it claimed that the U.S. has submarines trailing *every single
one* of China's nuclear submarines, and, therefore, it remains capable of
a successful first strike against China.

And, furthermore, U.S. conventional resources in the area, combined with
Taiwan's defenses, are sufficient to prevent any annexation of Taiwan from
producing a _fait accompli_ as Russia managed in the Crimea, and so China
will be faced with turning back or escalating to nuclear.

Should this optimism be proven false, though, ASML is in the Netherlands,
not Taiwan. And so while China might manage to obtain chip production
capacity for the _current_ advanced processes, if the facilities aren't destroyed
first, as microchip density continues to increase, the new fabs would all be
built outside Chinese control.

John Savard